So many wonderful things have happened ever since the midterm elections ended with Democrats rolling over Republicans like a Hummer dealing with a pesky PT Cruiser. Many of the worst people in the country are sad, Russell Brand’s been convicted, the Tesla Cybertruck got canceled, and now gas oil prices are falling. Not because the oil companies waited to lower prices because they hate Trump but because, as the Wall Street Journal reports, Trump has largely lost his will to fight and likely won’t rain hellfire down on Iran like he was talking about before the election. See? Elections have consequences.
On Monday, Brent Crude prices fell below the $95 mark, and at the time of writing, a barrel of Brent can be had for $94.77. West Texas Intermediate, on the other hand, slipped below $90 and is down to $88.21 at the time of writing. And if the WSJ’s reporting is accurate, those price drops have come because it’s looking less likely that Trump will escalate the war he started without congressional approval now that Democrats control both the House and the Senate:
Oil prices fell sharply Monday, with Brent crude dropping more than 3% to below $95 a barrel after President Trump downplayed the prospect of further U.S. attacks on Iran, even as attacks on Saudi Arabia and fresh incidents involving tankers in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted continuing risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
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Trump said in an interview with CNN Sunday that further U.S. strikes on Iran were highly unlikely as long as negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz made progress. His comments followed a sharp decline in oil prices last week as traders assessed the prospects for a diplomatic resolution following the Democratic Party’s victory in the U.S. midterm elections.
Saudi Arabia is still dealing with its Houthi problem, and that could always derail a peace deal. Especially since Houthi attacks struck Riyadh, hitting an Aramco administrative building but not killing anyone. Additionally, projectiles hit at least one, if not two ships in the area over the weekend. So there’s still more to work on, but these days, we’ll take any positive sign we can get.
End the war now
Of course, while this year’s midterm election proved to be the biggest win for Democrats since Watergate, Democrats won’t take control of Congress until new members are sworn in next year, and they won’t have a chance at the White House until the 2028 election. With both the House and Senate, they’ll have the power to check Trump and Republicans, but there are still limits on what they can do while Trump’s president. As a result, don’t expect a peace deal overnight, even if gas gets cheaper. From the WSJ:
However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with Washington had made no progress and Tehran was waiting to see whether the U.S. administration would change its position following the elections.
Signs of easing supply tightness are also emerging in the oil market. The spread between the nearest Brent futures contracts has narrowed to around $2.60 a barrel from nearly $4 at the end of last week, while physical crude prices are trading below futures, according to MUFG.
With Vance still involved and Stephen Miller now the chief of staff, the Trump White House hasn’t magically transformed into a good-guy factory. Vance also appears to regret starting this stupid, pointless war, with the Guardian reporting that the vice president sent Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, a letter in an attempt to negotiate a peace deal. We’ve seen wishful thinking drop oil prices before, so don’t assume the traders know anything we don’t, but the fact that prices aren’t rising is at least encouraging.
Maybe, just maybe, the end to Republicans’ latest war in the Middle East could finally be drawing to a close. Trump’s reversing course on his plans to flatten the entire country of Iran, Vance is already attempting to distance himself from Trump, and with the American people sending a loud and clear message to the rest of the world, it’s possible Republican negotiators will be more willing to make a deal that upsets Netanyahu’s party in Israel.
Whether that will happen or not still remains to be seen, especially since Trump tends to change his mind based on who he spoke with last or which man speaking with him has a juicier dumper. Republicans could still sink a peace deal, but at least Trump and Vance sound like they’re ready to be done. We won’t get a very good deal out of any peace agreement, but that’s also what happens when you start a pointless war and lose. It’s also no reason to continue fighting. Let’s end this war and end it now.
